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樓市調控延伸至三四線城市 專家稱進入深度調整期

重慶渝開發股份有限公司網站  www.lzg521.com  2018/7/6  來源: 新華網

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近期,多地陸續出臺樓市新政。6月24日-26日,西安、長沙、杭州相繼宣布限制企業購房,7月1日昆明發布限購政策,再到昨日河北大廠、上海紛紛收緊有關房地產的調控政策。同時,住建部等七部委將在北京、上海等30個城市先行開展治理房地產市場亂象專項行動。業內專家對此表示,自一二線城市之后,樓市調控開始逐漸延伸至三四線城市,樓市將進入深度調整期。

今年5月份,住建部先后約談了12個城市,再次重堅持房地產調控目標不動搖、力度不放松。并要求各地毫不動搖地堅持“房子是用來住的、不是用來炒的”定位,堅持調控政策的連續性穩定性,認真落實穩房價、控租金,降杠桿、防風險,調結構、穩預期的目標任務,支持剛性居住需求,堅決遏制投機炒房,因地制宜,精準施策,確保房地產市場平穩健康發展。

據國家統計局公布的5月份70個大中城市商品住宅銷售價格變動情況顯示,35個三線城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅銷售價格分別同比上漲6.0%和4.3%,漲幅比上月分別回落0.3和0.2個百分點,分別連續4個月和10個月回落。從環比看,三線城市新建商品住宅和二手住宅銷售價格分別上漲0.7%和0.6%。

土地市場方面,據中原地產研究中心統計數據顯示,2018年上半年,50大城市合計土地出讓金高達17985.4億元,同比2017年同期的12874.9億元上漲39.6%。其中,包括佛山、湖州、常州、嘉興、南通、徐州等在內的38個三四線城市賣地超過100億元。

“從三四線城市樓市人口變化趨勢來看,三四線城市正常的合理樓市需求為既定的,并且市場容量有限,需求也是有限的。”同策研究院首席分析師張宏偉分析稱,過去一年多,由于棚改貨幣化安置比例較高,加上房企布局下沉至三四線城市,總體上推動三四線城市樓市輪動上漲,某種程度上透支了三四線城市的樓市需求。

他表示,三四線城市市場持續分化,一線城市限購后,需求外溢,都市圈內三四線城市跟隨上漲,但調控政策執行較早、目前樓市進入深度調整期,未來趨勢與調整期二線城市類似;其他三四線城市目前樓市處于上升期,但隨著棚改工作進入后半場,房價上漲限制需求釋放,未來上升空間有限。

“三四線城市樓市降溫,對于布局三四線城市比重較大的房地產企業影響會較大。”張宏偉說。

新城控股高級副總裁歐陽捷認為,當前部分三四線城市房價上漲過快,穩定市場關鍵在于金融的支持和地方的推動,適度收緊金融,有助于降溫過熱點、穩定房地產。他預計,局部過熱城市會適度降溫,整體樓市仍保持平穩。

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